Within the four year gap between elections those who vote change. I don’t mean that they change their minds, but literally. Older voters have passed away and younger voters that have come of age have emerged. New fresh faces can, for the first time, express their views. Things that were once popular pass, not because people have changed their minds, but rather because of this tide of different people emerging.
What is inevitable over time is change. What is surprising (to some) are those changes.
Pew has some interesting insights
Their latest update was published Oct 26. I’ve mined it for a few insights.
Party Preference and actual votes
The Party you register for might not reflect who you vote for. Back it 2016 it was like this …
In a study of validated voters in 2016, 5% of Democrats and Democratic leaners reported voting for Trump, and 4% of Republicans and GOP leaners reported voting for Hillary Clinton.
It will be fascinating to see how that changes this time around with the Lincoln Project vigorously encouraging Republican voters to vote for Biden this time.
As for the composition of the electorate, well, let’s get into that.
Ethnic Changes
What is fascinating is how the actual ethnic composition of those that vote is changing. Here are the percentages over time …
New Voters
Back in 2016, just 4% of the voters were Generation Z (Americans born after 1996). This time they represent 1 in 10.
Education plays a role
How many voters have a college degree?
Back in 1996 it was 24%. Today it is 36%.
That appears to have an impact, because the educated appear to lean Democrat …
Religion plays a Role
Here is how these numbers break down …
Permit me to pull out one specific statistic.
Note that in the Total column on the left, back in 08, not all that long ago, 15% of the voters were non-religious.
Today that is 28%.
In other words, the people who identify as non-religious now far outnumber those that identify as Evangelical. As you can see from the chart above, most of those non-religious people identify as Democrat.
This really should not be a surprise, but for some it will be a deep shock. When we think of the traditional teachings of Jesus, feed the poor, welcome the stranger, etc .. and contrast that with the Evangelical policies of intolerance, obnoxiousness, and a “fuck-the-poor” attitude, then what can one say except to simply quote the bible …
whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap
Galatians 6:7
It is inevitable that these fundamental changes will result in a rather different result than in 2016.